Lure Selection Guide

[davidwat1]

I like the way you are putting this together Justin and it's interesting to see you actually applying an algorithm to help validate the data or the sources as well. I know I have seen something similar to this done by one of the pro's.....I think it was Ken Cook, who was a fisheries biologist before becoming a bass pro. I'm going to see if I can find it because I think that it will help provide you with some added information to apply to your own chart as well. I think his is called a pattern forecast or something like that...anyways, I'll see if i can "Bing it" (sorry I'm a microsoftie). Will post it when I find it. -Dave

[jf0]

No, I never thought you were challenging anything, I was only saying that any feedback, good or bad, or any recommendations of anecdotes is good for the cause and is exactly why I put this up here.

[davidwat1]

hmmmm, ok I must have been smoking something, because it looks like you have to pay for it now..i swear they had it up there in its entirety the last time I looked at it...oh well... Hey Justin, maybe you should start charging for yours! So basically they have a network of about 50 pros who share there top picks on everything from lakes to lure preference by season etc,.. Lots of interesting data, but you do have to pay for the Top 50 by season chart, which I think is particularly interesting. http://profishingresearch.com/default.asp

just as an example here is what they have as the Top 10 of their Top 50 lures.

Rank Manufacturer Name Size Color Type %
1 Lucky Craft Pointer 100 100 Chartreuse Shad Jerk Bait 16 29.10%
2 Zoom Finesse Worm 6" Green Pumpkin Worm 14 25.50%
3 Storm Wigglewart 3/8 oz Crawfish Crankbait 12 21.80%
4 War Eagle Double Willow Spinnerbait 1/2 oz White/ Chartreuse Spinnerbait 12 21.80%
5 Yamamoto Senko 5" Green Pumpkin Worm 11 20.00%
6 Berkley Football Jig 3/4 oz Green Pumpkin Jig 11 20.00%
7 Heddon Zara Spook 5" Glitter Shad Topwater 11 20.00%
8 Jewel Eakins Jig 5/16 oz Brown/ Chartreuse Finesse Jig 11 20.00%
9 Zoom Super Fluke 5" Albino Fluke 11 20.00%
10 Bill Lewis Lures Rattle Trap 1/2 oz Chrome/ Blue Crankbait 10 18.20%

[jf0]

I have received a few questions from people asking if the color chart is incomplete or why isn't this color here. I'll try to explain how colors get chosen to show on the graph. First you need to understand that if I plotted every color in every situation then every box would have an 'x' in it and would make for a very cumbersome chart. The whole point of these charts are not to plot every piece of information, but to simplify the information and present the best of the best.

I'll use Archangler's example of Red. I in fact do have information in my database about red being viable in clear deep water, however I have more sustainable information for clear deep water for the colors white, chrome, pearl, yellow, and blue. Again to simply the decision making of the end user, red is excluded along with several other colors. Of course, this could all change as colors are promoted and I tweak the threshold for displaying information on the graph. For example I may find more information to backup the color red in clear deep water, and I may adjust my decision code on how much information is presented on the graph.

Hope this helps anyone understand better what they are looking at

[jf0]

David, thanks for the info! I had ran across that site before and was disappointed to have to pay.

[tagwatson360]

Hey Justin,

I just have a quick comment to add that may offer a different perspective. First off, I think a chart such as this (although I find several items I personally disagree with on this one) might be beneficial to a beginning angler to offer them a starting template. However, for a more experienced angler who is trying to consistently catch bass on a variety of different fisheries at different times of the year, I think charts like this could be potentially detrimental. Here is why: If an angler is consistently referring to charts in an attempt to select the "best" lures, techniques, colors, etc., it could possibly inhibit his or her natural instincts which I believe should be the driving force behind decisions on the water.

My alternative suggestion would be to learn a variety of techniques and always keep an open mind on the water. If your gut tells you to throw a frog or buzzbait in the prespawn, by all means try it. You'd be amazed how often your instincts are accurate. The majority of the times that I am unsuccessful, it is because I didn't go with what my gut was telling me to do initially. Just wanted to offer a slightly different angle on the topic.

Good fishin'!

[hookorcrook]

hmmmm, ok I must have been smoking something, because it looks like you have to pay for it now..i swear they had it up there in its entirety the last time I looked at it...oh well... Hey Justin, maybe you should start charging for yours! So basically they have a network of about 50 pros who share there top picks on everything from lakes to lure preference by season etc,.. Lots of interesting data, but you do have to pay for the Top 50 by season chart, which I think is particularly interesting. http://profishingresearch.com/default.asp

just as an example here is what they have as the Top 10 of their Top 50 lures.

Rank Manufacturer Name Size Color Type %
1 Lucky Craft Pointer 100 100 Chartreuse Shad Jerk Bait 16 29.10%
2 Zoom Finesse Worm 6" Green Pumpkin Worm 14 25.50%
3 Storm Wigglewart 3/8 oz Crawfish Crankbait 12 21.80%
4 War Eagle Double Willow Spinnerbait 1/2 oz White/ Chartreuse Spinnerbait 12 21.80%
5 Yamamoto Senko 5" Green Pumpkin Worm 11 20.00%
6 Berkley Football Jig 3/4 oz Green Pumpkin Jig 11 20.00%
7 Heddon Zara Spook 5" Glitter Shad Topwater 11 20.00%
8 Jewel Eakins Jig 5/16 oz Brown/ Chartreuse Finesse Jig 11 20.00%
9 Zoom Super Fluke 5" Albino Fluke 11 20.00%
10 Bill Lewis Lures Rattle Trap 1/2 oz Chrome/ Blue Crankbait 10 18.20%

Not to be too cynical (or highjack the post) but how much stock would you put in this? Seems to me the pros wouldn't give away too much because they have to compete to make a living, plus, how do you know they aren't just promoting their sponsors?

[Teal101]

Hey Justin,

I just have a quick comment to add that may offer a different perspective. First off, I think a chart such as this (although I find several items I personally disagree with on this one) might be beneficial to a beginning angler to offer them a starting template. However, for a more experienced angler who is trying to consistently catch bass on a variety of different fisheries at different times of the year, I think charts like this could be potentially detrimental. Here is why: If an angler is consistently referring to charts in an attempt to select the "best" lures, techniques, colors, etc., it could possibly inhibit his or her natural instincts which I believe should be the driving force behind decisions on the water.

My alternative suggestion would be to learn a variety of techniques and always keep an open mind on the water. If your gut tells you to throw a frog or buzzbait in the prespawn, by all means try it. You'd be amazed how often your instincts are accurate. The majority of the times that I am unsuccessful, it is because I didn't go with what my gut was telling me to do initially. Just wanted to offer a slightly different angle on the topic.

Good fishin'!

Great response. I too find my instinct tends to prevail when choosing colors. I might strike out on a few here and there but then there's that one you try and it all falls together.

[Desertcreek]

First off I want to say it is super cool that you are putting as much thought into fishing as you are. I have often felt like I learn almost as much off the water as I do on the water. That can only be true if you are spending enough time on the water to have something to analyze off the water. I think the analytical part of our brains are often neglected when it comes to hunting and fishing. That said I would have to agree with Tag in that you can really hinder your instinctual abilities with too much analytical thought. The two counteract eachother a lot. I believe you have to have some analytical understanding in order for your insticts to be trustworthy but sometimes your instincts don't make much sense on paper but they end up being the exact soultion.

I make my living giving investment advice and most of my time is spent in analysis but sometimes you have an internal conflict that rages between your gut and what the data states. I have found that most of my mistakes occur when I go against my gut and side with the analysis. Confidence is the same way. You can't fake confidence you can only gain it from positive experiences and like analysis those positive experiences give us the evidence that suggests we should have confidence.

I think what you have built could be the just what some guys may need to begin building their own instinctual abilities. The common thread I have found amongst succesful tournament anglers is that they all have incredible instictual abilities and most of them will tell you that there regrets typically come from the times they have gone against what there gut tells them. I'm certainly not suggesting I am one of those guys and I am not necessarily speaking from some great wealth of experience but I have witneesed this ability in others.